Did you ride the OIL trend?

USDJPY short term trend change
July 11, 2013
July 11, 2013

Some time ago we published an analysis on OIL and the bullish potential it had if certain conditions were met. The important neckline of the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern was broken upwards and so was the huge sideways triangle that was being formed for the last 2 years. TRADING2DAY members were notified of the bullish implications of those break outs and saw me enter long positions heavily near the 97$ level and again at the 101-102 level.

Below is the break out of the big sideways triangle.


Next chart shows the breaking of the neckline and the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Prices have reached the first target of the IHS breakout which is the 61.8% of the length of the head. Next target is the 112$ price level as its also the most common target after such breakouts.


The bullish trend has ended or is near its completion. As shown in the following charts, we believe that wave 3 has ended and OIL is entering a corrective phase. This phase we believe is wave 4 of the entire move that started near 91. We believe that the move that started from 92.67$ has ended and it was wave 3 as shown in the following charts. Breaking out of the short term upward channel will confirm this view.


 Wave 4 is expected to move sideways and lower towards the 38% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of this upward move, shown with yellow in the chart that follows. The pull back could reach 101-102 price area. Breaking below the red horizontal support line, will cancel this bullish wave count as an overlapping pattern can not be , thus changing the our view to bearish.OIL2

Concluding, we remain longer term bullish in OIL but with short term neutral view. If you want to see our trades in OIL you will see in our PREMIUM SERVICES page the recent performance of the second week of July. If you want to receive 3 focused newsletters per week regarding tradeable opportunities and if you want access to our exclusive for members account were I post my trades and how I apply the newsletters in market conditions, then don’t hesitate and become a member today!!!

As always, thank you for taking the time to catch up on my thinking.


Alexandros Yfantis
Alexandros Yfantis
Fascinated by financial markets, studied International Securities Investment and Banking in the UK, works as a Portfolio Manager in Greece and runs a technical analysis website. Enjoys travelling and spending time with his family and preparing for the black belt in Korean Karate.