We welcome to our Trading2day.com team a promising Elliott wave analyst Artyom Chefranov from Russia. He will be sharing his Elliott wave analysis with us. Best wishes for a great start and a long-term collaboration with Artyom. Welcome Artyom…..
Two times per every week I shall share my view on the most interesting markets, using Elliott waves approach. The main currencies pairs, indices, commodities and stock companies will be observed, in addition I shall present markets, which are currently offering any reliable trading opportunity, based on my waves count.
All my trading opinions are depended upon Elliott waves theory of the market behavior and reflects my own trading decisions. Elliott waves count can be used directly or combined with any other market analysis.
Waves labels table. Degree of our waves on charts may or may not match with yours, it is not an error.
Monday morning, 10 july 2017.
Since early January 2017 euro has changed its direction from fall to rise. Full five waves has formed since then, we can treat these waves as a first wave (A) in an upward correction (A)-(B)-(C). Chart above shows us a complete impulse form.
First move up is ending, because:
1) Wave (A) has entered our target space, marked on the chart above.
2) Wave (A) has retraced a large ending triangle – usual property of any reverse move.
3) Wave (A) already has a complete five waves form.
First move up is ending or maybe already over. It is not a time to hope for a further decline of the US dollar. We wait for a downward correction after wave (A), this correction should unfold itself completely, and we could BUY euro against USD once again to use the next wave (C) up. We consider the end of wave 4 in wave (A) as a first target for awaited euro fall. It is time to close all BUYs.
The last wave 5 in wave (A). Maybe a short final move up is required, but we have already marked a probable top. First euro rise is ending or has already ended, wait for correction end.
Large wave down has started on CAD since early May 2017. This wave has a long room to fall and a long time to go. We have counted a complete first move down – wave (1) with extended fifth wave. By our waves count first fall on USD/CAD is over, we wait for an upward correction in wave (2). Long fifth wave offers the nearest targets for wave (2) move – the tops of waves [iv] and [ii] labeled on chart above. Also note, that Fibonacci level 0.5 of wave (1) length is also the lowest border of the target space.
SELL for USD/CAD is not valid anymore, wave (2) move should confirm our wave (1) wave count – it should unfold in three waves A-B-C and should enter our target space.
After that we could find a place to SELL USD against CAD once again.
The last move down in wave (1). We have left an error possibility – maybe the last move down is required, but further fall looks limited. Now is a good time to close all open SELLs. We wait for wave (2) move to confirm our wave (1) count.
The middle part of bitcoin move, wave III, has ended at 11 June 2017. Now we count wave IV – correction. First part of correction, we have marked it as wave [A], is a five waves impulse, so bitcoin fall is not over yet, move down will continue in wave [C], making a usual three waves zigzag [A]-[B]-[C]. Wave [B] – probable contracted triangle. We have marked a preferable target for ending wave [C] – Fibonacci level 0.618 of wave III length and bottom of the previous wave . Price will try to get there with a high probability.
First wave in correction – clear visible impulse. Correction is zigzag, with currently unfolding wave [B]. We wait for wave [B] to become a contracted triangle. Move down will go on.
We wait for wave  to be changed with a decisive move down in wave , this move should make a new low for pound. The main question – is wave  over? We present our current model for wave  – initial triangle as wave (A), corrective triangle as wave (B) and ending impulse (C). By this model wave  is already over and we see first move down in wave . In such a case price should not exceed wave
 Top level anymore. Chart above.
First wave down by our approach. Expanded initial triangle as wave 1 and a flat surface as wave 2. Wave 2 looks too high and it has got very close to our boundary, but we still can take this model as valid, until price keeps below our boundary.
Decisive move down is required anyway. Current situation can be treated as a SELL opportunity to open a long term short position in wave . Stop loss is the top of wave . If price would break our top level and go beyond our wave  mark, then wave  is not over yet. In this case we shall wait for wave  end and SELL pound once again.