Dollar shows signs of strengths since last week but has still not cleared any short-term bearish doubts yet. There are a lot of chances we have seen a long-term low in Dollar weakness but we need to remain cautious and patient for more evidence that supports a bullish reversal. As you have been reading my daily USDX analysis through my partnership with InstaForex, the Dollar index made a bullish weekly reversal hammer last week. On top of that price reached the long-term 38% Fibonacci retracement support and bounced strongly.
However price needs to break above the red trend line resistance and eventually break above the Kumo in the weekly USDX chart as shown above, in order to have resumption of the bullish long-term trend.
This pair reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and bounced strongly towards the first important resistance that the Kumo in the 4 hour chart is. We initially have a rejection in this area and therefore in order for the EURUSD to continue higher we need to break above 1.1450. Support is at 1.1360. Failing to hold this support we should expect a pull back towards 1.12 at least.
Looks weaker than the EURUSD as the bounce off the 50% rertacement was shallow. I would expect price to bounce towards the Kumo like EURUSD did, but for now it seems that it is more possible to see new lows and even reach the 61.8% retracement of the rise. 1.4385 support and 1.4470 resistance.
It is trading inside a bullish channel and it seems we should expect at least one more new higher high towards 110.50 in order to complete 5 waves up. If this does not happen and price breaks below 108, then the bullish scenario will be in danger. Specially if price overlaps the early May highs at 107.45. If this happens, then the chances for a new low towards 100 will have increased.
Strong bullish trend as price has not even retraced to the 38% Fibo. I’m bullish the USDCAD but would like a deeper correction in order to open long positions. I would expect price to reach the Kumo support before going long.
AUDUSD is in a short-term bearish trend and at the 50% retracement of the rise from 0.6825. I believe this pair could stage a strong bounce off this area of support. I will be looking for reversal signals as I do not believe the downside has much potential.
This pair has broken below the trend line support and has started a corrective move. Price reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement and bounced strongly. I’m waiting for at least one more leg down towards the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement.