Gold wave analysis
February 17, 2016
Gold analysis for Monday 22nd
February 22, 2016

EURUSD

Bottoming, expecting upward reversal

eurusd

With oscillators diverging and turning upwards from oversold levels, price is trapped inside the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart around the important support area of the 38% Fibonacci retracement. EURUSD is expected to reverse higher. Resistance is at 1.1160-1.1180 and a break above this area will open the way for a new up trend towards new highs maybe near 1.15 if not higher.

GBPUSD 

Still in bearish trend

Price remains inside the downward sloping channel and new lows are more probable as long as price is trading below 1.4575.

GBPUSD1

Price is also below the Ichimoku cloud and has broken both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. All indicators point lower  as long as short-term resistance at 1.44 is not breached. If we break this resistance trend will change to neutral.

AUDUSD

At important long-term resistance, bearish wedge pattern.

AUDUSD

Green line – support

upward sloping blue line- short-term support

Downward sloping blue line – long-term trend line resistance

AUDUSD is testing the long-term downward sloping trend line resistance and shows signs of weakness as the rejection at this trend line is not a bullish sign. On the contrary I believe we best try short positions as long as price is below the long-term resistance trend line. If the lower green wedge boundary is broken we should expect more selling to come and push prices to new lows towards 0.68. On the other hand a break above 0.72 could signal a bigger upward correction even towards 0.75.

NZDUSD

Under important long-term resistance, risk/reward favors bears

nzdusd2

Price is testing the long-term trend line resistance. Already we have two touches and two rejections. Soon we will have a breakout or a new rejection that will start the push lower towards 0.64-0.62.

nzdusd

Price is making lower lows and lower highs after topping at 0.6750. A break below 0.6550 will open the way for a new round of selling pressures to push price towards 0.6450 at least for the short-term.

USDCAD

Possible double bottom

USDCAD

Price has reached the previous low around 1.3650 and  with oscillators oversold this could be a very interesting area to go long as support is huge now at 1.36.

USDCAD2

USDCAD is approaching the long-term upward sloping trend line support. It is also at the lower boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Support is here. Risk reward favors bulls at current levels.

USDJPY

Shallow bounce, bearish rejection expected

USDJPY

Price did not manage to overcome the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Equity indices continued their rally but USDJPY did not follow. This divergence is a bearish sign for both. Price remains below the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is testing the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart. I expect a rejection and a push towards 113-112.50 over the coming days.

That is all from me today, thank you for  taking the time to read my thoughts.

Have a nice day

Alexandros Yfantis
Alexandros Yfantis

Fascinated by financial markets, studied International Securities Investment and Banking in the UK, works as a Portfolio Manager in Greece and runs a technical analysis website. Enjoys travelling and spending time with his family and preparing for the black belt in Korean Karate.