Forex Review for February 29th.


Trend : long-term neutral, short-term bearish

EURUSD continues to trade inside the big trading range of 1.05-1.17. We have been moving sideways inside this range for almost a year now and only if any of the range levels is broken we should be more confident for a longer-term trend. I believe it is more probable for the lower boundary to be broken. In the short-term, trend is bearish as it got rejected at 1.1350 where it back tested the broken rising trend line.


Price is above the Kumo (cloud) and stochastic is oversold. We could see a bounce towards 1.10-1.11 over the coming days but I believe that as long as price is below 1.1350 we should remain bearish. Now that price is very close to the cloud bears should be cautious as a bounce is justified.


Bearish trend with good chance of a bounce


GBPUSD is giving bullish divergence signals through the RSI. Trend however is bearish as price is inside the downward sloping channel and below the Kumo. Best case for bulls I see is a bounce to test the kijun-sen near 1.43 before the resumption of the bearish trend. A triple divergence could justify for such a big bounce. Waiting….


Long-term trend in danger as big reversal signs are shown

USDJPY has broken the weekly Kumo (cloud) support and this is a bearish sign. Short-term trend is neutral as price mainly moves sideways after a sharp decline from 121.30.


USDJPY could be heading towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement now that price has broken below the cloud.


Important resistance for the bearish trend is at 116. As long as price is below that level we should expect more downside in this pair and any bounce should be sold.


Triangle formation will soon provide a strong signal.


Price is trapped inside this triangle but for now holds above the Kumo (cloud). Breaking below the green trend line support should push price towards 0.68. On the other hand a break above 0.7250 will open the way for 0.74.


Still inside the long-term bullish channel but in danger of moving lower towards 1.32.


USDCAD has broken the trading range I mentioned last time we analysed this pair and is now moving sideways in a consolidation pattern, before most probably making a new bearish move towards 1.32.


It is very probable that price will move towards the lower channel boundary near 1.32 before a considerable tradeable bounce comes. Support is at 1.35, if broken we go to 1.32. Resistance is at 1.36-1.3660-1.3740.

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