Gold: Bullish long-term but could see $1,200 first (alternative scenario)

Τραπεζικός δείκτης: Μια ‘’αρμονική’’ ματιά και δυο σενάρια … ένα θετικό και ένα αρνητικό
September 8, 2016
Ενημέρωση θέσης
September 9, 2016

Gold did not manage to break above $1,350 and got rejected at the downward sloping trend lines connecting previous highs. The bullish scenario I posted yesterday depends on whether we break $1,300 or not. Today I also post the bearish alternative scenario that will be our favorite if price breaks $1,300.

goldh4

Short-term support is found at the Ichimoku cloud at $1,322 where we also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise from $1,302 to $1,353. Support is also at the $1,333 level where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement.

gold

In the above chart I show my two most probable scenarios. The bullish scenario does not want price to break below $1,300. The bearish scenario implies that the correction of the rise from $1,045 is not over and that we should expect one more downward leg towards $1,200-$1,180 to complete wave C of 2. In both scenarios I remain long-term bullish as I believe Gold has made an important long-term low at $1,045.

Alexandros Yfantis
Alexandros Yfantis
Fascinated by financial markets, studied International Securities Investment and Banking in the UK, works as a Portfolio Manager in Greece and runs a technical analysis website. Enjoys travelling and spending time with his family and preparing for the black belt in Korean Karate.