Is EURUSD starting to discount a rate cut?

US markets short term analysis
April 22, 2013
USD/JPY short term analysis
April 24, 2013

EURUSD is slowly but steadily falling, forming a pattern with lower highs and . This is changing trend direction to down, with possible test area the 1.2920 level. Currently prices trade at the 50% retracement level among rumors of a rate cut in the next ECB meeting on May 2nd. If that is the case, the market seems to try to put that scenario into the current prices. The 61,8% retracement level is the last support that could hope to see a rebound. If prices fall further than that level, then will be starting to control the trend.

eurusd4h

As far as Elliott waves are concerned, the entire upward move from 1.2740 to 1.32 could very well be just wave A of the bigger degree correction. We could now be trading at wave B of the correction with expectation of a last upward wave C towards the 61.8% retracement of the 1.3720-1.2740.

eurusd4hb

For the time being as long as EURUSD is trading below 1.3085 trend is bearish with first target the 1.2920 area. If prices break below that level then we could expect a test of 1.2850. More updates and analysis regarding this pair is sent to our subscribers which were informed promptly yesterday when I closed my  USDJPY long position at 99.75 and entered short EURUSD at 1.3044.

As always, thank you for taking the time to catch up on my thinking.

HigherHighsLowerLows

A term used to describe a trader who is expects that a particular asset – be it a commodity, currency or product – to rise in value. The opposite of a ‘bear’.

The idea is that bulls attack by bending their heads and poking their opponents upwards with their horns, symbolising the fact that they are buyers, driving prices up.

Beliefs held by the aforementioned ‘bulls’ of the trading world, are described as bullish. Characterised by a generally optimistic outlook on the state of a given asset, a bullish outlook would suggest that a rise in value is imminent. Opposite of bearish.

A term used to describe a trader (bear) who is expects that a particular asset – be it a commodity, currency or product – to fall in value. The opposite of a ‘bull’.

The idea is that bears attack by getting up on their hind legs and striking their opponents down with their paws, symbolising the fact that they are sellers driving prices down.

Beliefs held by the aforementioned ‘bears’ of the trading world, are described as bearish. Characterised by a generally pessimistic outlook on the state of a given asset, a bearish outlook would suggest that a fall in value is imminent. Opposite of bullish.

Alexandros Yfantis
Alexandros Yfantis
Fascinated by financial markets, studied International Securities Investment and Banking in the UK, works as a Portfolio Manager in Greece and runs a technical analysis website. Enjoys travelling and spending time with his family and preparing for the black belt in Korean Karate.