Morning FX view

Good morning to all and happy week ahead. I expect Dollar to be weak this week specially if we see the Dollar index break below 98.50.


Remains inside a downward sloping channel. Above 1.0950 we should expect a rally to 1.12-1.13. Support at 1.08 is respected despite all the news that could have pushed it lower.



Price is approaching important cloud resistance in the 4 hour chart. Resistance area is found between 1.4340-1.4450.


Bulls should be very cautious as we could see a rejection at current levels and a push to new lows.



As I had mentioned in my previous posts, this pair has signaled a bigger bearish reversal is at hand and rallies should be sold. The first leg down is most probably over and we should expect a bounce towards the short-term ichimoku cloud resistance for a back test.


I expect a bounce towards at least 1.4330.


It looks like we can see a short-term bearish signal soon as price is testing the short-term upward sloping channel and as we have already reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 123.60.


Price remains above the Ichimoku cloud in the 1 hour chart but breaking below 118 will be a bearish signal that implies a move lower towards 117.70 is very possible.


In the 4 hour chart we have 117.70 as important support. Breaking below it will open the way for new lows towards 116.


That is all from me now, more updates and charts through twitter. Follow me at @alexanderyf.


Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.


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