The chart that tells me that we should expect at least a short-term bounce in TLT is the following. Technically we are at important short-term support and at least a bounce towards 125-126$ should be expected.
TLT has reached the red upward sloping trend line support and the Daily Kumo (cloud) support. A technical bounce could unfold from current levels towards 125-125.50$ at least. Such a behavior will have bearish implications of the longer-term trend as depicted below.
In my automated system price has broken below the dual indicators and the green trend line support. Confirmation of a trend change will come with a lower high (bounce towards 125.50$) and a back test of the broken trend line. A longer-term trend reversal will be shown by a rejection around 124-125$ and then a lower low. But lets not be hasty. First let’s see if we get the initial bounce.
Thank you for taking the time to catch up on my thinking.