Good day to all. We have been monitoring closely the NatGas price while it has been rang trading between 2.87-3$ for the last few weeks. Finally the bearish divergence signs that warned us have paid us. Price has broken down below the trading range and I believe a big move lower towards 2.60$ at least should be expected over the coming weeks.
Resistance is at 3.00$. Next support is at 2.75$. As our colleague Dimitris Kontoulis has been pointing out every Saturday at the Natural Gas week ahead preview, any bounce towards 3$ should be seen as a selling opportunity and we would only turn bullish above 3.10$.
The longer-term lower channel boundary is at 2.43$ but strong support is first found at 2.60$ area. This would be a perfect place to take partial profits. I believe that trend has changed and a new downward leg has already started. Bulls need to be very cautious and bears should only worry on a break above 3$.
Thank you for taking the time to catch up on my thinking.