Natural Gas Week ahead

Nymex Natural Gas had a volatile week closing at the same level as the previous one at $3.18. Thursday’s underground stock build showed a 63 Bcf rise which pressed the price significantly but only for a day. The price seems to be stuck between short term support and longer term resistance forming a range bound. Close to record production seems to ease fears about the below 5 year average stock levels and traders remain patient, while the refill season will offer another couple of large enough builds, despite the first colder shots in the Lower 48. We like to see the same volatility while choosing to sell these rallies and staying alert for MACD and RSI to show us the next trend in the longer term charts. Seasonality integration will continue for another few weeks. The general sentiment about winter’s price range will be seen in a month, in association with the weather models. Trading volumes and the Dollar Index must be carefully taken into account, especially for the longer term moves. Dimitris Kontoulis.



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