Natural Gas week ahead.

Natural Gas futures market on the Nymex faced a negative week closing 2.90% lower than the week before at $2.67. EIA’s Thursday storage report for the week ending March 22 confirmed only a 36 Bcf withdrawal which pressed the price considerably. Last month’s small rally is now entirely sold, as expected, we need to stay patient while approaching a break area in this range we are in and figure out how much additional momentum there is going to be. MACD turned breasish on March 26th, even on the daily chart and price vulnerability is what comes first in mind, while talking about the U.S. Natural Gas market for the longer run. Weather models showing milder conditions are coming in most of the Lower 48 while the underground stock refill season is approaching. For this market not to stay inside the normal $2.50 – $3.00 range in the coming months, will have to face important reverse in major U.S. macro figures. We still like to sell rallies on first sign of weakness, on shorter periods as range bound movements are very probable for the coming months. We cannot buy this market for a longer course unless we see a sustainable break above the $3.20. We might not be even close to this upper bound before next Fall. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI build upon trading volumes are offering precision in our entry decisions.


Dimitris Kontoulis.