Natural Gas week ahead.

Natural Gas futures market on the Nymex faced a negative week closing 7.90% lower than the previous one at $2.19. Eleventh in a row, for this refill season so far, weekly build in working underground stocks above the 5year average and nearly all of them at 5year record high levels. Last Thursday EIA confirmed 115 Bcf were injected for the week ended June 14th. Fundamentals remain bearish for this market as 2016 lows still shaping its sentiment, much more after Winter’s seasonality aggressive decline of price that took place earlier this year. The resilience of a potential new range bound lower than the $2.50, which is a major longer term support area, remains to be seen. We like to sell rallies but we can jump in and buy the shorter term when a floor will be provided for a short term range bound movement. Dog Days to follow and increase in demand will offer it. We will buy only when the Daily MACD crosses bullish and sustains decent support levels. The outlook for U.S. Natural Gas is bearish, macro figures regarding the U.S. economy should be monitored closely. Latest U.S. housing starts drop is worrying as well as the pressure for more fracking regulation. Trading volumes, daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI offering precision to determine our entry points.

 

Dimitris Kontoulis.