Natural Gas week ahead.

Natural Gas on the Nymex had a volatile week moving inside a range closing 1.70% lower than the previous one at $2.31. Thursday’s EIA storage report showed a less bearish volume of 84 Bcf in working underground stocks were injected for week ending October 18. Stocks currently 529 Bcf more than last year or 16.8% higher while three weeks ahead of calendar. Range bound movements very typical for this time of year, in an uptrend nonetheless, as Winter’s significant increase in demand and colder weather in most of the Lower 48 will eventually drive price higher filling a gap. Early Seasonality integration after record high shorts squeeze, began already in August, with enough impulse even while in prolonged injection season, then finding a plateau while evolving range bound. We do not want to sell this market, even if long term fundamentals remain abiding bearish. We prefer to buy the dips on shorter period charts for this time of year. Just as most of U.S. producers want, other market participants will look to use this market for end of year hedging. Since July we like to see price levels only shallow to the $2.50 long term support and even if February contract currently looking weak, we cannot genuinely reevaluate this support level before Winter ends. We anticipate an enduring $2.35 while $2.70 and $3.00 must be considered attainable in the next couple of months, on sentiment build up granted that the Daily MACD shows the same stability and continuity in its bullish crossings as showed after last Summer’s floor. The Dollar Index and U.S. macro figures to be carefully monitored, coming week’s U.S. jobs report crucial as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI offering precision to our entry decisions. Daily EFI still above zero.

 

 

 

Dimitris Kontoulis.