Oil price is forming an upward sloping wedge pattern with multiple bearish divergence signals by the oscillators. Short-term support is at $48.20 and a four hour candle close below it will confirm the bearish reversal. Another reason that makes me confident of a price reversal from current levels is the strength in USDCAD.
Once the wedge pattern support is broken I expect price to move lower towards the Ichimoku cloud support around the 46$ price level.
USDCAD has traditionally an inverse relationship with Oil. As oil price rises USDCAD falls. For the last few sessions we have seen a break in this correlation. However I still believe it is valid and the current strength in USDCAD will be followed by weakness in Oil prices at least for the short-term. However we should not ignore the larger triangle pattern in USDCAD which implies that a clear break above 1.3250-1.33 could signal a deeper correction for oil prices. This is another reason why I prefer short Oil at current levels.