Short-term view on EEM US

Greetings everyone. Taking a closer look at EEM US (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) we first observe that we remain in a bearish trend as price is still below the Ichimoku cloud in the Daily chart. Price has tested the Kumo (Cloud) several times so far and each time it got rejected. However only recently have we seen a bullish RSI divergence in the Daily time frame.

EEM US could already have bottomed but we cannot rule out a new leg lower towards 40$ or a bit lower in order to touch the lower red trend line. On the other hand bulls will need to see price break above 43.85$ initially and above cloud resistance at 44.75$ in order to hope for a bigger bounce if not major trend reversal targeting 48-50$ first.

 

Key parameters that will affect EEM US on a fundamental basis, are the ongoing talks between the US and China, the Dollar strength as a result of the Fed policy. If Fed policy weakens the Dollar (against current trend) this would be bullish EEM US. If trade talks collapse and deal is made between China and the USA we should expect the bearish trend in EEM US to be maintained.

Thank you for taking the time to catch up on my thinking

Leave a Reply