S&P has limited upside for now

S&P levels to watch out this week.
March 31, 2014
Is S&P starting a new up trend?
April 2, 2014

S&P trend is up and is challenging its previous all time highs. I expect S&P to move lower from current levels towards at least 1840-50. My view is that S&P is either making a sideways triangle or it is forming an important top before a deeper than usual correction that will challenge intermediate term support at 1770-1800.

spx60m

Short-term trend remains up as the index has broken the red trend line resistance and trades above the Ichimoku cloud. However the rise has stopped below the strong blue resistance trend line that comes from the previous highs. I expect the index to get rejected near 1875-80 and to reverse lower towards at least the 1840-50.

SPXD

The chart above shows my two most probable scenarios. The triangle corrective pattern is not over yet and I believe the end of it will come this Friday. I expect at the end of this week to see either  a turn upwards to finally break all time highs and make a close above 1880 or a downward break of 1840 that will confirm a move lower towards the 61.8% retracement of the rise from 1737. A close above 1880 will confirm that we have entered a new upward move. A break below 1840 will confirm that more downside should be expected towards at least 1800. If support at 1840 is held, we shall look into buying opportunities as the triangle formation might be at its final stages.

As always, thank you for taking the time to read my new post.

Alexandros Yfantis
Alexandros Yfantis
Fascinated by financial markets, studied International Securities Investment and Banking in the UK, works as a Portfolio Manager in Greece and runs a technical analysis website. Enjoys travelling and spending time with his family and preparing for the black belt in Korean Karate.