S&P short term Elliott wave count

French CAC 40 market analysis
March 30, 2013
Τι μας δείχνει η κυματική ανάλυση για την Ελληνική αγορά.
April 2, 2013

Many posts yesterday that I found around the internet were talking about an impulsive wave down in S&P. Many are looking for a top at these levels and the end of the upward move from 1343. Although I agree that we are currently in the final stages of this upward move from 1343, the 5th wave could extend even to 1589-1600 level.

spx60M

Although the pattern of the upward move in S&P is overlapping, the sequence of and higher lows increases the possibility that the wave structure is of small pairs of 1-2 waves. This means that we should soon expect wave 3 up. It is a very useful pattern as we can raise the stops as market rises and we will be quite certain if trend changes.

spx5

As I mentioned earlier, many saw yesterday’s decline as an downward move. This is not the case as there is an important rule that is being broken. According to wave 1 and 4 should not overlap. This is the case with yesterday’s decline. Moreover the length of time it took for wave 4 to unfold is too big in proportion to wave 2. For me these two waves are of different degree according to that characteristic and therefore there is no 5 wave pattern here.

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Alexandros Yfantis
Alexandros Yfantis
Fascinated by financial markets, studied International Securities Investment and Banking in the UK, works as a Portfolio Manager in Greece and runs a technical analysis website. Enjoys travelling and spending time with his family and preparing for the black belt in Korean Karate.