Last July we saw SPX make new all time highs and the media celebrated the ‘mother of all buy signals’. Three months later and a 65 points (3% upside) higher we saw a top in SPX and a pull back towards the breakout area. Prices have pulled back towards the breakout area and this is an important back test as it will either confirm the breakout or it will label it as a fake one. The implications of a fake breakout are very serious as we could see SPX back towards 1900-1800 in no time. Lets take a look at some charts.
The monthly chart as shown above shows a glaring bearish divergence. This alone by itself does not confirm a trend reversal. The tenkan-sen is crossing below the kijun-sen indicator. This is an initial bearish sign. So in case we do really reverse lower we should expect the price to find support close to the kijun-sen currently at 2000 points, while the Chikou-Span (the light green indicator) shows that monthly support is at 2020.
The bearish divergence signals in the weekly chart are more profound and also a megaphone pattern could be at play here. It is time for the market to make a correction. First important support comes at 2120-2130 where the previous highs and the breakout occurred. Breaking below this area will open the floodgates. Cloud support is found at 2020 and below it we should expect to see the lower boundary of the megaphone pattern around 1800.
The importance of the 2120-2130 is huge and that is why I believe we are testing these levels. Not only will we break below the breakout area but we will also break below the blue upward sloping trend line. At the same time holding below my two EMA is not a good sign. The more we stay below them, the higher are the chances of a breakdown.
I believe the chances are in favor of pulling back and testing the Brexit lows. Time for a correction. I have short positions in equity indices and stocks. Bulls please be cautious. Better safe than sorry. Corrections are fast and sharp. Once this starts, it will be difficult to cover longs.
Thank you for taking the time to catch up on my thinking.