Time’s up for the Dollar rally

Δοκιμάζοντας τα όρια….
October 3, 2017
SPX target achieved, what next?
October 4, 2017

Has the bull run in the Dollar index reached its peak? Is the Dollar index about to resume its bearish trend towards 90 or lower? I believe that there are increased chances the answer is yes to both questions. Why? Since the 91.50 low on September 20th, the Dollar index has completed 5 waves up. However the price action prior to the 91.50 is a two wave pattern, with the first wave up clearly a corrective zig zag pattern.

The rise from its yearly lows at 91 is clearly a 3 wave move to complete wave A. The decline towards 91.50 from 92.66 wave A high is also a 3 wave pattern labeled wave B. We are now at the final stages of the 5th wave if not already complete. This wave formation is a classic corrective pattern and once it ends, the previous trend resumes. In this case, the longer-term trend was bearish.

In the daily chart price is below the Kumo (cloud) and inside the bearish channel. Price has bounced towards Kumo and channel resistance and I expect to see a rejection, based on my previous wave count shown in the 4 hour chart above. The rejection should lead to a decline in the index towards 90 or even lower.


This is my primary scenario on what to expect from the Dollar index. Thank you for taking the time to catch up on  my thinking.


Alexandros Yfantis
Alexandros Yfantis
Fascinated by financial markets, studied International Securities Investment and Banking in the UK, works as a Portfolio Manager in Greece and runs a technical analysis website. Enjoys travelling and spending time with his family and preparing for the black belt in Korean Karate.