Why I believe the Dollar could strengthen

Through my daily analysis in the Dollar index (link) I have been calling for a reversal while price was testing the 95 price level. Now that the index has fallen back to 93, my alternative wave scenario that the rise from 91 to 95 was only wave A and the move to 93 is wave B, has been moved up to be my primary preference wave scenario. This means that I believe the downward move in the Dollar index should soon reverse to the upside. Both the index and its major component have made impulsive wave structures favoring the Dollar. So the counter trend move against the Dollar is part of the corrective phase, but another wave of Dollar strength should follow.

The Dollar index could push lower towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rise, before reversing higher. This is not necessary but overall I see high probabilities in the bullish Dollar scenario so Dollar bears should be very cautious from now on. I expect the Dollar index to reach at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline.

The major component of the Dollar index is the EURUSD pair. Price formation in this pair is very similar to the Dollar index and I believe we can see a move lower towards 1.14-1.13 from around 1.1850-1.1950.

So I’m starting to position myself in favor of the Dollar. The only pair where I do not favor the Dollar is the USDCAD where I’m short since 1.28.


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