Forex early morning analysis

Good day to all, from today I start an early morning analysis wrap up of the major fx pairs as a strategy guide for the day ahead. Follow my account @alexanderyf in twitter so you can read up to date and live analysis of the major fx pairs.



As I mentioned yesterday through twitter, holding above 1.08 was needed so that this pair could make another move higher towards the Ichimoku cloud resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Short-term resistance is the recent high at 1.0980. If broken I would expect the price to move towards 1.10.50-1.11. Breaking below 1.08 will give me a bearish signal that could start a new downward move to new lows.



This pair continues to trade inside a downward sloping wedge and below the Ichimoku cloud in the daily chart. As long as price is above 1.4940 we should expect the price to move towards 1.5170.


 A shorter-term look shows us that 1.50 is important short-term support while bulls will need to break above 1.51 in order for the bounce target of 1.5170 to be reachable.



This pair continues to trade inside the trading range between 122.20 and 124. Trend is neutral. I prefer to wait and take no positions in this pair for now.



I’m bullish again since yesterday as long as price is above the upward sloping trend line. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and this is not good for bulls. Important resistance for the short-term is at 0.7280 and for the medium-term at 0.7370-0.74.  The double top at 0.7370 if broken could give a bigger bounce towards 0.78.


The weekly chart above shows how price got rejected at the kijun-sen indicator. However lets not forget that the blue downward sloping trend line has been broken. So taking this into account and if we see a break above 0.74, then bulls should expect the price to move towards the Ichimoku cloud at 0.78. If however 0.7150-0.71 is lost, then we should expect to see new lows below 0.69.



This pair is trading inside an upward sloping channel and holds above the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud. Support is at 0.66 and below that at 0.6520. Resistance is at 0.6660 for the short-term and after that at 0.67.



Despite the huge rally in the USDCAD I remain very sceptical about the sustainability of this up trend. I continues to believe that bulls should be extremely cautious and raise their stops to 1.35 as the daily chart tells me to be very cautious. Despite the new highs, the RSI is giving a bearish divergence signal. Important support levels are at 1.33 and at 1.3150.

As always, thank you for taking the time to read my latest thoughts.


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