Did you know the Henry Hub natural gas price fell to under $2.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in February and March 2024? This is a drop of nearly two dollars from last year1. This big drop shows how unstable the gas market is. It makes us wonder: what will happen as we get closer to October 2024?
Experts predict the natural gas price will be around $2.20/MMBtu next year. They think prices will stay under $3.00/MMBtu for most of it2. With more demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports expected in 2025, prices might go up a bit. This is because U.S. consumption is expected to stay around 90 Bcf/d2.
So, it’s important to understand the gas market outlook. Knowing what drives prices is key to keeping up with future trends.
Understanding Natural Gas Trends and Price Dynamics
Natural gas prices change due to many factors. These include global demand and seasonal shifts. Knowing these helps investors and users understand the market better.
The Impact of Seasonal Changes on Natural Gas Prices
Seasons greatly affect natural gas prices. In shoulder seasons like September and October, prices stay steady. This is because there’s less need for heating.
The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price was $2.10/MMBtu in the first half of 2024. It even dropped to $1.5/MMBtu in mid-February3. Prices are expected to rise to nearly $2.90/MMBtu in the second half of the year3.
Factors Influencing Gas Market Fluctuations
Many things cause market ups and downs in natural gas. Production, demand, and storage levels are key. For example, natural gas supply went up by 2% in the first half of 2024. This was partly because LNG output rose by 4.5% in the first quarter3.
LNG output fell by 0.5% in the second quarter3. Also, U.S. natural gas storage inventories were 19% above the five-year average by June 2024. This shows there’s enough supply3.
Looking ahead, global gas demand is expected to grow by 3% in the same period. Most of this growth comes from Asia, which accounts for about 60%3. These trends help shape the gas supply outlook and guide energy market analysis.
Gas Forecast October 2024: Price Predictions
The gas forecast for October 2024 shows a big change in the natural gas world. This change comes from supply and demand. Prices are following old patterns and new market changes. Experts think gas prices will be between $2.90 and $3.10/MMBtu by the end of 2024. This is because of many economic factors45.
Current Pricing Trends and Projections
By August, the U.S. natural gas price at Henry Hub was $1.98/MMBtu. This is 4% less than July’s price6. Experts say prices will stay under $3.00/MMBtu for the rest of 2024. They also think U.S. natural gas use will drop by 8% from August to September6.
Also, gas inventories will be 6% more than the five-year average by the end of the injection season4.
Analyzing Supply and Demand Factors for October 2024
The energy forecast for October will be influenced by LNG exports and changes in U.S. gas use. U.S. gas production is expected to rise, averaging 104 Bcf/d6. This increase will help with exports, which are expected to grow by more than 2 Bcf/d. This is because of winter heating needs5.
Weather, like hurricanes, could also affect gas supply and prices in the future.
| Month | Average Price (MMBtu) | Natural Gas Consumption (Bcf/d) | Inventories (% above five-year average) |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2024 | $1.98 | 79 | 19% |
| September 2024 | ~$2.00 | 79 | 6% |
| October 2024 | $2.90 – $3.10 | Projected increase | Above average |
These factors will help us understand the gas supply outlook. They are especially important for those looking at the October 2024 energy forecast645.
Global Influences on U.S. Natural Gas Prices
U.S. natural gas prices are closely linked to global oil market trends. OPEC+ cut 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil, making Brent oil prices over US$90/bbl. This led to big changes in the energy market7. In early November 2023, Henry Hub natural gas prices jumped to US$3.50/mmBtu, showing how global supply and demand can change prices7.
The rise in LNG imports in Asia also affects U.S. prices. Domestic producers adjust to these changes to meet international demand.
Comparative Analysis with Previous Years
Looking back, we see how the natural gas market has changed. For example, global oil demand grew by 800 kb/d in the first half of 2024. This is the lowest increase since 2020, and demand could hit almost 103 mb/d in 20248.
U.S. natural gas prices have seen big swings over the years. These changes are due to seasonal and global demand cycles.
| Year | U.S. Natural Gas Price (US$/mmBtu) | Global Oil Demand Growth (kb/d) | OPEC+ Production Cuts (mbpd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3.75 | 500 | – |
| 2022 | 7.50 | 900 | 2.0 |
| 2023 | 2.80 | 1,200 | 2.5 |
| 2024 (Forecasted) | 3.50 | 900 (1H24) | 2.0 |
Future Gas Trends and Their Implications
The gas industry is facing changes that could affect prices and how things are done. Prices at the Henry Hub are expected to go up from about $2.00 per MMBtu in mid-2024 to over $3.00 by the end of the year. This means energy costs might go up soon9.
Natural gas demand is also expected to rise by 1.7% in the summer. This shows how important it is to balance supply and demand in the gas market10.
A big change is that natural gas-fired power generation has gone up by 22% from 2021 to 2023. This is because less coal is used, especially when it’s cooler9. At the same time, U.S. LNG exports are set to grow 18% in 2025. But, there’s a problem because storage levels are 35% higher than usual. This could lead to too much gas and might force companies to change their plans9.
In short, the gas industry is looking at higher prices and changes in how gas is used. This is because of global economic changes. It’s important for everyone to stay alert and know what’s happening. This way, they can handle the challenges and chances in the gas market10.
Source Links
- Natural Gas Forecast & Price Predictions 2023, 2025, 2030 – https://capex.com/en/overview/natural-gas-price-prediction
- Gas (GAS) Price Prediction 2024 2025 2026 2027 – 2030 – https://changelly.com/blog/gas-gas-price-prediction/
- Natural Gas Forecast & Price Predictions 2023, 2025, 2030 – https://capex.com/za/overview/natural-gas-price-prediction
- Natural Gas Prices Poised to Rally Through Back Half of 2024 and Next Year, EIA Says – https://naturalgasintel.com/news/natural-gas-prices-poised-to-rally-through-back-half-of-2024-and-next-year-eia-says/
- Short-Term Energy Outlook – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
- Short-Term Energy Outlook – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php
- 2024 oil and gas industry outlook – https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/oil-and-gas/oil-and-gas-industry-outlook.html
- Oil Market Report – September 2024 – Analysis – IEA – https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2024
- Natural Gas Market Indicators – May 6, 2024 – American Gas Association – https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-may-6-2024/
- Natural Gas Market Indicators – May 30, 2024 – American Gas Association – https://www.aga.org/research-policy/resource-library/natural-gas-market-indicators-may-30-2024/
