Natural Gas week ahead.

Nymex Natural Gas had a volatile week yet Friday’s session closed flat compared to a week before at $2.56.
Thursday’s EIA storage report pressed prices significantly with another record build of 123 Bcf in underground working stocks for week ending April 26th. The refill season started with spectacular builds at 5-year record input and already filled 3 times the amount of the 5-year average for the last month, which bring the stocks already ahead of Summer’s natural increase in demand. Market will face range bound movements inside the $2.50 – $3.00 for the coming months on conflicting forces and smaller trading volumes. Any new agreement for U.S. LNG exports is facing very competitive pricing from current providers. The best example is the outcome of the talks taking place between the U.S. and Europe as far as it concerns the Russian gas. So any increase in demand will have to be equalized by its competitive pricing which might not have any major impact after all on the domestic market. We like to sell rallies on signs of weakness, as fundamentals are still bearish for this market on the 2016 lows and the overall sentiment. Daily MACD crossed bullish on Monday and it seems like a shooting star is, before even expected, going to be entirely sold anytime soon on the shorter term charts. Demand will remain low for the week to come on milder weather than normal in most of the Lower 48. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI offering precision in our entry decisions. Dollar against majors and U.S. consumer confidence always to be closely monitored.

 

 

Dimitris Kontoulis.