Natural Gas week ahead.

Natural Gas on the Nymex had a positive week closing 5% higher than a week ago at $2.62, despite another large build, confirmed on Thursday by EIA, showing 78 Bcf in working underground stocks were injected for week ended September 6th. This is a bullish sign also for the months to come, as seasonality, which started shaping this market’s sentiment ahead of Winter demand, is feeding this rally. The global energy industry hit by the latest attacks on major Saudi fields. Reports telling that half of its oil production will go offline temporary. U.S. Natural Gas rigs are also in decline, at the same time U.S. macro figures such as the latest business inventories climb, the consumer sentiment which rebounds more than expected and the retail sales also on the rise, all fueling a bullish sentiment. This seasonality integration on price won’t be that parabolic though, not before trading the December or January contracts in larger volumes, range bound movements in an uptrend are expected till the end of Fall. More aggressive spikes on hedging always expected. We won’t sell unless we see a reverse in the Daily MACD. Bearish fundamentals still apply, the market probably won’t reach last year’s price levels, fueled also by excessive hedging from many market participants on panic, but the $3.50 and $4.00 have to be considered attainable. U.S. producers would like to see it happen. Price just 5% lower than a year ago after this 22% rally since mid August. The Dollar Index always to be closely monitored. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI pointing entry areas.

 

 

 

Dimitris Kontoulis.